Bitcoin Rises on Relief Tariffs Won't Take Effect Immediately — Market Talk

0822 GMT - Bitcoin edges higher after U.S. officials said higher reciprocal tariffs wouldn't take effect immediately if trade deals aren't reached by Wednesday's deadline. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Sunday that tariffs would on August 1 revert back to levels announced in April for countries that fail to reach a trade deal. President Trump said on his Truth Social platform that "tariff letters and/or deals" will be delivered starting Monday. Markets are pricing in a scenario by which tariffs do not get hiked back to April levels, Capital.com analyst Kyle Rodda says in a note. Bitcoin rises 0.3% to $109,069, according to LSEG. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0801 GMT - Swedish core inflation rose much more than expected in June, reaching an annual rate of 3.3%. This makes further rate cuts from the Riksbank unlikely, Nordea analysts write. Inflation is too high, they say. Nordea expects core inflation will remain at around 3% in July and August. "Our forecast is that the Riksbank will stay on hold at 2.00%, and today's inflation reading supports that view." Nordea also expects domestic demand to recover, reducing the need for rate cuts. Still, Nordea estimates that prices for foreign travel rose more than expected, which would make the uptick in inflation less dramatic.(dominic.chopping@wsj.com)

0752 GMT - Japanese companies can ill afford to wait long for a trade deal with the U.S., say analysts at BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions. BMI thinks that talks will be drawn out for months if Japan's governing coalition loses its majority in parliamentary elections this month. This will make it harder for Japan to propose a major agreement to the U.S. in a timely manner. The current tariff burden has already reduced Japan's exports and corporate profits, and a delay risks further weakening investment and wage growth, BMI says. Tariff-induced price cuts are squeezing corporate margins and sustained pressure could reverse investment momentum, it adds. If wages aren't hiked again as profits weaken, that could slow household consumption and undermine the economic recovery. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)

0752 GMT - According to the Halifax house price index, the U.K.'s housing market showed significant resilience in June as house prices held firm and first-time buyers returned, RBC Capital Markets analysts Anthony Codling and Oliver Dyson say in a note. Their return is a positive sign and a key indicator of the housing market's health, they say. However despite the likelihood of rising taxes in autumn, wages are still rising and the market expects further cuts to the bank rate, both of which would aid affordability, the analysts say. "With wages still rising and mortgage rates expected to fall, the housing market is in good health as we approach the summer holidays," the analysts said. Vistry shares are up 1%, followed by Berkeley, up 0.6%, and Taylor Wimpey, up 0.3%. (anthony.orunagoriainoff@dowjones.com)

0741 GMT - Yields on U.K. government bonds are little changed after U.K. Prime Minister last week backed U.K. Treasury chief Rachel Reeves, easing investor concerns. The 10-year gilt yields last week climbed to a 3-week high of 4.629%, Tradeweb data showed, due to concerns that Reeves could be replaced, potentially creating room for looser fiscal rules. Gilt yields have retreated from last week's levels. The 10-year gilt yield is little changed at 4.545%. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0738 GMT - Vietnam will likely remain a key beneficiary of global trade tensions, Marcel Thieliant, Capital Economics' head of Asia Pacific, writes in a note. The country's U.S.-bound exports have surged since the U.S. imposed high tariffs on Chinese goods, with about 20% of the increase coming from rerouting of Chinese exports, Thieliant says, citing CE data. That implies Vietnam-produced goods account for the majority of the increase in U.S.-bound exports, showing that Vietnam is well-placed to benefit from trade tensions in the near term given spare capacity, he adds. The U.S.-Vietnam trade deal reduces uncertainties but there are still some unknowns, including a risk that the U.S. could coerce Vietnam into significantly decoupling its supply chains from China, Thieliant says. (kimberley.kao@wsj.com)

0737 GMT - China's domestic demand may remain soft without a major stimulus, Macquarie economists Larry Hu and Yuxiao Zhang write in a note. Beijing's priority is to hit its GDP growth target, but a major stimulus is unlikely if exports remain steady, as Beijing will likely do just enough to reach its growth target, they add. The timing and size of any stimulus will depend on exports, which are largely influenced by economic policies and tariff rates set in Washington, they say. Given such a macro backdrop, investors may adopt a barbell strategy--combing high-yield stocks suited for a deflationary environment with domestic names for a potential policy pivot, they say. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)

0730 GMT - Markets are likely to be volatile as the July 9 deadline for the 90-day tariff pause approaches, according to Nomura analysts in a research note. The near-term outlook will likely hinge on several key factors, including the rate of tariffs, the effective date of such tariffs and the countries involved in the new deals. "While uncertainty remains high with multiple possible scenarios, we believe that greater clarity on trade tariffs might actually help markets eventually grind higher," the analysts say. A new tariff agreement could reduce one aspect of uncertainty, allowing investors to focus, for now, on other positive developments, such as the Fed rate-cut theme and the ongoing AI narrative, they say.(tracy.qu@wsj.com)

0722 GMT - BYD will likely see near-term market volatility given recent industry news around price competition, DBS analysts write in a note. The recent share price volatility would give investors some opportunity to buy on dips, they add. Aligning supply and demand is a decisive move taken by BYD to lower inventory pressure, allowing the market to consume the available inventory, after news about BYD adjusting production to a more realistic level, they say. The auto industry has been facing over-capacity issues in recent years, which has led to severe market competition, they add. BYD's production adjustment is likely to bring utilization rate down to the mid-70% level this year, DBS says. While BYD has suspended plans to venture into Mexico, its long-term overseas strategy remains intact, they say. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)

0721 GMT - The euro falls slightly against the dollar as the EU faces higher U.S. tariffs unless it secures a trade deal ahead of Wednesday's deadline to conclude negotiations. President Trump has threatened a 50% tariff on EU imports. However, financial markets have learned not to take these comments at face value, ING analyst Chris Turner says in a note. That means any falls in the euro versus the dollar could attract buyers, he says. ING expects the euro to trade in a $1.1700-$1.1830 range this week. The euro falls 0.2% to $1.1751. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0710 GMT - A jump in Swedish inflation in June will discourage the Riksbank from further interest-rate cuts, says Adrian Prettejohn at Capital Economics. Both headline and core inflation rose in June by much more than Riksbank officials had forecast at its meeting last month, the economist says. CPIF inflation increased from 2.3% in May to 2.9% in June, leaving it much higher than the consensus for a reading of 2.5%. The core rate jumped even more sharply, from 2.5% to 3.3%. Capital Economics expects the Riksbank to keep the policy rate at 2% for the foreseeable future, rather than cutting again. (dominic.chopping@wsj.com)

0705 GMT - Sterling falls, dented by the prospect of U.K. tax rises to plug a black hole in the public finances. U.K. Treasury chief Rachel Reeves refused to rule out tax rises in the autumn budget in an interview with the Guardian, published Friday. The Labour government was forced to make major concessions in its welfare reforms to avoid a rebellion within the party. Reeves said there were costs to watering down the reforms. "We expect the U.K. government's troubles to remain a theme through the coming week, weighing on the pound," Monex Europe analyst Nick Rees says in a note. Sterling falls 0.3% to $1.3605. The euro rises 0.1% to 0.8637 pounds. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)