PredictIt

PredictIt is a US politics-only event market with questions in six categories — elections, president, congress, state and local, world, and weekly indicators — where users buy yes or no shares and the price reads as probability. It charges nothing per trade but takes 10% of profit on winning positions and nothing on losers; the per-contract cap follows the federal campaign contribution limit, set at 3,500 dollars after a July 2025 amendment that also removed the 5,000-trader limit per market.

The venue is not a CFTC-registered exchange; it operates under a 2014 no-action letter, amended in July 2025 to move operation to the non-profit Prediction Market Research Consortium, with Aristotle providing technology and services. After litigation running from 2022 to 2025 it resumed trading and kept its political price history back to 2014, a continuous series that researchers and political analysts rely on.